Republican primary debate #3 review

Here we go for number 3. Debate number 2 didn't really change my opinions much.

I’m a big believer in rigor and precision as well as thorough documentation. For elections, the prediction markets give a sense of where a candidate is at any moment and how that changes over time. I’m going to cash out my intuitions into a buy or sell order at the current stated price from Predictwise. Then at the end of the election, we will objectively know if I had a clue.

All quotes will be from the time a post was written, if it gets published a bit later they may be dated. Buy / sell and sizing is based on my gut without any deliberative number crunching. With those preliminaries out of the way, let’s get to content:

Bush now seems like one of many. He isn't very punchy or unique. His front runner status as a natural schelling point was kind of what made him, without that he's toast.

Sell 100 @ $0.103

I still like my long 300 position on Rubio he remains well spoken.

No trade

Ted Cruz just looks too smug. He won't get it but he may go up before he goes down. If I wanted to 'day trade' I'd switch to a long position and try to get back to short before he comes down again. Instead I'll be more moderate and ease off the short just a bit

Buy 100 @ $0.079

Carson still isn’t happening. I said that last time and it's my worst call, but it won't happen. People asked about the tithe, some know he's crazy.

Sell 100 @ $0.089

No change with Huckabee, but I do like what he says about focusing on curing diseases.

No trade

Christie seemed minor now. He didn't seem to be at the core of the debate.

Sell 200 @ $0.045

Kasich has stopped engaging with the questions asked of him and stopped playing the game. At this point he is just trying to talk sense into people..

Sell 200 @ $0.023

Fiorina seems like rubio at the first debate. Generally well spoken and good at the politics thing (awkward closing statement aside). She ran a major company into the ground so she won't get it, but she may go up before she doesn't.

Buy 200 @ $0.03

Trump seemed less like a juggernaut than before, but I still can't call anything.

No trade, I don’t feel I understand this one well enough.

Republican primary debate review

On this blog I review things. I review music. I review cocktails I’m developing, and today I’m going to review yesterday’s republican debates. For those here for the cocktails, don’t worry my next set of tasting notes will go up later today, this post won’t doesn’t replace my usual series.

Cocktails are subjective, I might like a drink with a more bitter note while someone else might prefer it to play down the bitter and use more sourness to provide punch. For a primary, the goal of the candidates is to win and winning provides an objective measure. So instead of rating the candidates on their overall goodness (or badness as the case may be) I’ll go over what the debates made me think about their chances to win.

As you probably can tell, I’m a big believer in rigor and precision as well as thorough documentation. For elections, the prediction markets give a sense of where a candidate is at any moment and how that changes over time. I’m going to cash out my intuitions into a buy or sell order at the current stated price from Predictwise. Then at the end of the election, we will objectively know if I had a clue.

All quotes will be from the time a post was written, if it gets published a bit later they may be dated. Buy / sell and sizing is based on my gut without any deliberative number crunching. With those preliminaries out of the way, let’s get to content:

Bush was enh. His closing statement was quite weak and a few answers were fumbling even if he did have a few good moments. I feel like other people were better at this than him. He has raised a lot of money and gotten a lot of endorsements though.

Sell 100 @ $0.407

Rubio is surprisingly well spoken. He was by far the best at the basic task of just talking and sounding clear, crisp, and not rambling. He had by far the most “presidential” demeanor. I feel like he is a very likely pick for the primary. He cut very far to the right on abortion here giving an answer that says he opposes life of the mother exceptions (though he has proposed and advocated for them previously). That could hurt in the general, but he said it in a way that would be hard to quote.

“Well, Megyn, first of all, I'm not sure that's a correct assessment of my record, I have never said that, and I have never advocated that. What I have advocated is that we pass a law in this country that says all human life, at every stage of its development, is worthy of protection. And in fact I think that law already exists. It's called the Constitution of the United States."

His quote never uses the word "exception", or the phrase “medical necessity”, or “life of the mother”. This would make it difficult to quote in an attack ad. This, to me, shows that he is very careful and good at the basic task of phrasing and can make things easy to quote for sound bytes or make things hard to quote for doublespeak.

Buy 300 @ $0.101

Ted Cruz just looks too smug. No chance, people who see his face are just going to want to punch him.

Sell 200 @ $0.028

Walker looked and sounded surprisingly out of his depth. He really just didn’t seem presidential. Some coverage (inc the Times) seems to think he did well, but seeing this debate I’m sure he won’t make it. If America wasn’t making it very difficult for its citizens to use prediction markets I would put real money on a bet against him.

Sell 200 @ $0.167

Carson isn’t happening, no need for much detail.

Sell 500 @ $0.021

Same with Huckabee, but he sounds more off putting and extreme.

Sell 200 @ $0.034

Rand Paul isn’t going to make it either, too many of his positions are out of alignment with the republican mainstream. What I wanted to see was if he was going to walk back his positions or try to stick with them and get a few delegates to horse trade with. He seems to be walking back from many of his positions and that’s not going to work.

Sell 100 @ $0.043

Christie seemed surprisingly capable to me. He was the only candidate able to talk numerically and precisely about any issue. I don’t think his numbers are actually correct, but he demonstrated an ability to at least engage with substance.

Buy 100 @ $0.029

Kasich seemed and sounded like a surprisingly decent human and seemed less “phony” than the rest. That said, he didn’t focus on his record as governor and kept forcing questions in odd directions to speak about his time in Washington during the Clinton administration (when the budget was balanced). Obliquely reminding people how great the Clinton years were is a not a good strategy for republicans.

Buy 100 @ $0.049

Trump didn’t seem great to me, but he also didn’t seem apologetic or to be changing his core strategy / persona. People who like him will probably continue to like him. That said I don’t see him as playing well in Iowa or New Hampshire so the wind may go out of his sails after those two primaries.

No trade, I don’t feel I understand this one well enough.

In the news - Jurassic Park Precursor

Thos who know me well know I have long advocated a real world Jurassic Park as a modern day moon shot. Pour huge amounts of research money into biology; forgive student debt for anyone graduating college with a degree in molecular biology (subject to some yet to be created post graduation competency check.)

The primary nominal goal would be to bring back dinosaurs, mainly for the coolness value. “We choose to resurrect the Tyrannosaurus, not because it is easy, but because it is hard. And also awesome.” But the fact is that the huge investment in biology and the build up a large population of biologists would enable a lot more research and a lot more start ups and that would drive advancement in a lot of other areas.

Mad schemes aside, I’d be happy just to get the dinos and it seems that progress is being made.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/science/reverse-engineering-birds-beaks-into-dinosaur-bones.html

Shellac - “Dude Incredible”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Shellac - “Dude Incredible”. Number 80

A very rock sounding song. Really good guitar. Just awesome rocking guitar. Its got a strong classic rock vibe but the song is much less structured, or it is structured much more non traditionally with some interesting transactions.

On the negative, I think the song presents a socially harmful view of gender relations. That said, its allegedly written from the perspective of a troupe of monkeys (yay google!). I’m not so sure about that, there are some attitudes in there that sound very familiar to me, and I’ve never had a conversation with a monkey (other than in the narrow technical sense in which people are monkeys). A lot of people whose music is misogynist claim that they are writing from a perspective or that it’s a character or whatever. But on the other other hand, monkeys!

I’ll leave this with a net neutral review, but with the caveat that if you really love guitars or monkeys you should check this song out.

Andy Stott - “Faith in Strangers”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Andy Stott - “Faith in Strangers”. Number 81

I like this track. Its pretty good to start with and it improves with repeated listens. There is a lot going on and once you've heard it a few times and your brain is more familiar with the patterns its a lot better. It reminds me of a less radio friendly version of Massive Attack or a warmer softer slower version of some of the loopy tracks from Atoms for Peace. I could also so a resemblance to Aphex Twin. If you like any of those bands check this out.

The album is called “Faith in Strangers” and one of its two 'singles' is also called “Faith in Strangers”. When I first went to check out this track I accidentally opened up a video of the full album. I ended up listening to the whole thing because it was good enough that I never reached a point where I felt compelled to stop listening to it. I think the album works well as a whole and it feels more 'natural' starting at the beginning and listening through. So as a bonus, below is a link to the whole album. If you've got some time check it out. I bet it would reward a headphone listen, but it works just fine for listening to at work. Probably a little slow to check out while running.

Jessica Pratt - “Back, Baby”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Jessica Pratt - “Back, Baby”. Number 82

A sad song but a good one. Maybe more wistful or mourning than properly sad. It’s a song about the past and a relationship that didn’t work out.

She has a really nice voice for a song like this. Her voice is very expressive. Its on top of some simple but very nice guitar strumming that adds mood and doesn’t get in the way.

Based on the small sample size of one song, it sounds like an intersection of Joanna Newsom and Marissa Nadler. Though not to oversell it, this song doesn’t have the lyrical brilliance of Joanna Newsom and the guitar playing doesn’t show the same ability to do everything at once that Marissa Nadler does when she’s playing a small venue with good acoustics.

I’ll probably check out the album and there are a few live shows coming up in the next couple of months, I might well check one of them out.

Ought - “Habit”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Ought - “Habit”. Number 83

I ragged on the prior song for a marked lack of subtly in its lyrics. These lyrics are a bit cryptic and it’s hard to pin down exactly what they mean, but you get the sense they do, in fact, mean something. This is an interesting song that’s worth hearing at least twice. The ending is a bit weak I think though, it get too repetitive, but might be work live if spiced up a bit.

This band has a really strong Talking Heads influence. The plus side of that is that Talking Heads are really good, and good influences can make good music. The downside is that it invites comparisons and these guys are no Talking Heads. On the other other hand, you can’t go see a Talking Heads show anymore. If these guys played a live show in my area I would listen to the whole album and if it was above the line I might go see the show.

For the avoidance of doubt, this was a positive review.

Father John Misty - “Bored in the USA”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Father John Misty - “Bored in the USA”. Number 84

It’s an understated singer songwriter type song. The guy has a good voice and it’s a pretty good tune. But it fails lyrically. It’s supposed to be simultaneously sad and satirical, but it’s just too unsubtle to really pull off either well. It hits its points hard and flat and in the clearest and most obvious ways it can. I’m sure he would say, “It lacks subtly ironically.”

Arca - “Thievery”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Arca - “Thievery”. Number 85

I don’t know how this song is official marketed and placed, but to me it sounds like an OK but not great techno song. Its techno ambient with some beats and sounds and has a vaguely Latin vibe created more by samples than by music.

For my purposes it’s too fast and friendly to be one of those disturbing / interesting techno songs like Easy Lee, Marionette, or Blood on my Hands. But it’s too slow and more importantly too choppy with various pauses and faux skips to play in the background while doing something fast that benefits from a beat and rhythm.

Note: despite giving this one a medium review, I do think this song is worth listening to at least twice.

Vince Staples - “Blue Suede”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Vince Staples - “Blue Suede”. Number 86

The music behind the lyrics is somewhat dubstepy with a bunch of very base sounds. Its mixed with some higher pitched stretched out siren sounds. It achieves the effect of being atmospheric and unnerving while still being rhythmic. Its not my thing, but its well done.

The lyrics are mostly boring and repetitive without being catchy. At times it moves away from the repetitive “hook” to spend some time being violent and misogynistic. Thumbs down.

An Angel gets its Wings

NY state politics is a cesspool. Every time a NY state politician is investigated or indicted an angel gets its wings.

via the NYT

Federal prosecutors have begun presenting evidence to a grand jury considering a case against the leader of the New York State Senate, Dean G. Skelos of Long Island, and his son, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Meta: Apologies to my readers for missing updates Monday - Wednesday. Work was crazy. Regular updates to resume later today.

Viet Cong - “Continental Shelf”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Viet Cong - “Continental Shelf”. Number 87

This is a weird song. And like many weird songs, it sounds better on repeated listens than on the first listen. After a few plays it’s a bit less disorienting. The song is kind of patchy, its doing a lot of different things and a few of the transitions between them are abrupt and un-smooth.

It has a few moments that sound like a George Harrison Beatles’s song (not as good of course), a few moments sound like Bauhaus (not as good of course), a few that sound kinda prog rocky King Crimsonesque (not as good), and some kind of driving guitar rock moments.

I usually listen to the songs I’m reviewing for this blog on fairly cheap “on the go” headphones driven by a phone. I’m not using my real quality headphones plugged into my DAC and Amp and I’m not using my good speakers. Since a lot of people listen to music while subway commuting, or walking, or running, or while at work I think this is generally a test with good “combat realism”. After hearing this song, I really wanted to re listen to at home on speakers with good imaging that can really spatially separate the guitars. A song that makes you want to listen to it again and pay closer attention is succeeding.

You Won’t Believe What Prominent Macro Economists are Saying About Interest Rates!

Well, maybe you will. But I needed an attention grabbing headline because Ben Bernanke is now blogging and that’s big news.

Even better than the fact he is blogging is that other economists are responding to him and he actually responds back. There has been a really interesting back and forth on interest rates and secular stagnation.

I have found in the past that I tend to underestimate the amount of background required for things to make sense. So its possible that the below exchange will be less meaningful and exciting to people who aren’t me and don’t share my interest in macro. But if you are interested in understanding the world around you and in understanding what may be some of the most important issues in the developed world these days read through the below exchange:

Initial Post – why are interest rates so low

wairsl - Secular Stagnation

wairsl - Larry Summer’s Responds

wairsl – The Global Savings Glut

wairsl – Krugman Weighs in

Lauryn Hill - “Black Rage (Sketch)”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Lauryn Hill - “Black Rage (Sketch)”. Number 88

Black Rage is a cover of “My Favorite Things” from the Sound of Music. Seriously.

The words are changed, like Weird Al, but sad instead of funny. The fundamental tune is obviously very solid, it was the foundation tune for one of the more successful and enduring Broadway musicals of all time. Lauryn Hill does a great job with her delivery. The instrumentation also works well, it’s a mix of minimal and understated guitar strumming with a few whumpwhumpwhump effects and some clickety drum beats. You wouldn’t expect those two elements to work well together but they do.

The lyrics are generally pretty solid as far as politically motivated songs go. Some might find them too didactic, but I didn’t get that feeling myself so maybe it’s not really a valid worry. One nit-pick, right at the very start of the song, she says black rage is founded on two thirds a person. In fact, historically blacks were three fifths a person, which is slightly less than two thirds, but perhaps she was feeling charitable towards the founding fathers.

Message aside, this is a good song. It just sounds goods when you listen to it. I’ve looped it a lot more than would be strictly needed to get a sense to write this review.

Cloud Nothings - “I'm Not Part of Me”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Cloud Nothings - “I'm Not Part of Me”. Number 89

Its fine. Vocals are a little bit receptive, but the song pulls it off better than most. Its branded as indie rock, but the sensibility seems quite poppy to me. There really isn’t anything wrong with this song, but life is short and there are other similar songs in this space that are just better. If somewhat upbeat poppy nominally indie rock songs about relationships are what you go for then check this out. - Edit Rereading this, it seems a little harsh to me. I'm still not saying its great, but it really isn't bad

Hundred Waters - “Murmurs”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Hundred Waters - “Murmurs”. Number 91

On the plus side I like the singers voice and the music / sound is interesting. On the down side the song initially starts off with very repetitive vocals. This may be for a legitimate effect, but its still repetitive.

The song gets a lot more interesting by the mid to later half of the song and incorporates a lot of cool ambient sounds to good effect on top of the core music which is also cool. Unfortunately, the song is sort of a downer, so while its good I don’t know if I would put it on a playlist that I planned on listening to often. My life would need to get a lot worse before this song really hit the spot.

I'll probably check out the full album since vocals and sounds are both very nice and I could potentially find some songs with a different tone.

Protomartyr - Scum, Rise!

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Protomartyr - “Scum, Rise!”. Number 90

I am surprised how much I like this song even though I don’t think I would listen to it regularly. It’s built on a simple but catchy repeating core that combines a propulsive driving sound with a dark and eerie feel. Very minor key sounding. Not sure where I would place this song, it has a lot of punk elements, but there’s definitely something very metal in its musical sound. The song is pretty kinetic and if you have it playing in the background it’s pretty easy to find yourself unconsciously bobbing your head to it. Odds are good that I’ll eventually give the full album a listen.

NPR’s “All Songs Considered” Considered

As a new weekly Friday feature (which may wind up being neither weekly nor limited to Fridays) I’m going to listen to an episode of NPR’s All Songs Considered and then recommend a song from the episode. In some cases it may be the best song (or at least the song I like most) in other cases it may just be a weird or interesting song that someone might not otherwise encounter.

I think I will usually just link to the episode and then post a video of the song. Today though I’m going to go a bit off script and plug the episode itself as well as picking song from it. The episode “This guy probably recorded a song you love” interviews John Congleton who has worked with Angel Olsen, St. Vincent, Earl Sweatshirt, David Byrne, Lower Dens, Erykah Badu, The Roots, Bill Callahan, The Mountain Goats, Modest Mouse, The New Pornographers, Swans, and more as producer / recording engineer. The episode plays a bunch of songs that inspired him as well as several songs he worked on. The interview is interesting and there are a lot of good songs that get played. This is worth listening to in its entirety. Download the podcast and listen on a run or listen to it in the background on your commute or at work.

Since I’m plugging the cast in its entirety, rather than picking the “best” song, which you would hear anyway (and may have heard before), I going to go with a particularly fun and unexpected song that I haven’t thought of in years. The song is Grim Grinning Ghosts from the soundtrack to Disney’s Haunted Mansion ride. It’s actually a pretty cool song with some funky chords going on, neat vocal harmonies, and it features the voice of Thurl Ravenscroft who played the Grinch.

As a practical note, I have a lot of back episodes to get through, so I may wind up either doing this twice a week, or listening to some episodes where I don’t pick anything until I get caught up with the current episode.

A missed opportunity

I should have put up an April Fools review yesterday.

iLoveMakonnen - I Don't Sell Molly No More

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up iLoveMakonnen “I Don't Sell Molly No More”. Number 92

This is surprisingly bland. It doesn’t do anything interesting musically or lyrically. I’m kind of perplexed as to how this made it to a top 100 list. There are many songs that I hear, and I don’t like, but I still know why someone would like them, that there are things the song objectively does well even if they are not the things that appeal to me. Here, I just can’t find anything the song does particularly well. It’s not musically interesting. The lyrics are dull and repetitive. The guy doesn’t seem to have great delivery or great “flow”. The song isn’t built on great beats. Maybe he knows somebody…

DJ Quik - Pet Semetary

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up DJ Quik "Pet Semetary". Number 96

Its lyrics are needlessly violent, homophobic, somewhat misogynistic, and serve to memetically entrench and perpetuate all manner of social ills. That said, for a song with those characteristics, I think this is better than average. The musical part of the song is quite good and has a smooth slow retro feel while still being kinda catchy. The lyrics are, at times, clever.

The New Pornographers “War on the East Coast”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up The New Pornographers “War on the East Coast”. Number 93

Mixed feelings about this one. I really like it musically. It has a rock feeling, but is also very techno sounding. It’s very upbeat, with its best moments having that roaring triumphant feel that so many Arcade Fire songs have. Weighing against that, the lyrics are overall not great and the chorus is outright lame. The vocals are very crisp and quite prominent in the mix so it’s hard to not notice them or just tune them out.

Overall worth checking out and if you are someone that doesn’t pay much attention to lyrics you might really like it.

Taylor Swift “Out of the Woods”

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Taylor Swift “Out of the Woods”. Number 94
Pure crap. I'm not even going to bother linking to it.

Cymbals Eat Guitars - "Jackson"

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Cymbals Eat Guitars - "Jackson". Number 95

This is the first song on the list I’m giving a positive grade to. For those who don’t check the tags on blog posts, my grades for each review are in the tags. A song can be tagged as -,~, or +. A bad review gets a -, a mixed or neutral review gets a ~ and a positive review gets a +.

This song reminds me a little of early Weezer (“Only in Dreams” era). It’s a little darker and has more of a punk note. The punk note comes through mostly in the vocal intonation of the singer (the song has >3 chords) and in the somewhat grim and blighted portrait of life it paints. There are a lot of nice bits to the song, good mini build ups.

Check this one out.

Copeland - “Advice to Young Girls” [ft. Actress]

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Copeland - “Advice to Young Girls” [ft. Actress]. Number 97

The beats are repetitive and at times boring. Its “put on make up and dress up” message is a negative social message of conformity and mass market hetero-normative socially constructed consumerist femininity. On the bright side it does have some interesting noises used throughout the mid portion and its an acoustically interesting track in its mid to late parts.

Merchandise - Green Lady

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Merchandise "Green Lady". Number 98

I like the music intro a lot, and it stays interesting with a retro vibe throughout. However, the vocals feel too down in the mix to me though, and also a bit muddy. This mixing choice might be motivated by the singer not having a great voice. The song might also benefit from a few more concessions to a pop sensibility, like adding some memorable / catchy “hooks”. Even Talking Heads had clear verse chorus structures. It closes well though.

Steve Gunn "Milly's Garden"

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
Next up Steve Gunn "Milly's Garden". Number 99

A nice’n easy indie rock song whose guitar work has a little bit of a country twang. It’s a pretty good song, but not super exciting. Its worth checking out if you are in the mood for a guy singing and playing guitar. If I was in a bar and this guy was playing, I’d be happy with the music. But compared to the universe of every recorded song ever, this track is not enough to make me check out the whole album.

Elisa Ambrogio "Superstitious"

Pitchfork top tracks for 2014
First up Elisa Ambrogio "Superstitious". Number 100

Enhh. It’s not bad, it’s better than a lot of things, but it’s not great. Music starts off interesting, but never gets nuts or builds up in a way that’s satisfying. The voice is not amazing, its restrained and conveys the emotions its aiming to convey. But it doesn’t rock and it doesn’t soar.