I’m a big believer in rigor and precision as well as thorough documentation. For elections, the prediction markets give a sense of where a candidate is at any moment and how that changes over time. I’m going to cash out my intuitions into a buy or sell order at the current stated price from Predictwise. Then at the end of the election, we will objectively know if I had a clue.
All quotes will be from the time a post was written, if it gets published a bit later they may be dated. Buy / sell and sizing is based on my gut without any deliberative number crunching. With those preliminaries out of the way, let’s get to content:
Bush now seems like one of many. He isn't very punchy or unique. His front runner status as a natural schelling point was kind of what made him, without that he's toast.
Sell 100 @ $0.103
I still like my long 300 position on Rubio he remains well spoken.
No trade
Ted Cruz just looks too smug. He won't get it but he may go up before he goes down. If I wanted to 'day trade' I'd switch to a long position and try to get back to short before he comes down again. Instead I'll be more moderate and ease off the short just a bit
Buy 100 @ $0.079
Carson still isn’t happening. I said that last time and it's my worst call, but it won't happen. People asked about the tithe, some know he's crazy.
Sell 100 @ $0.089
No change with Huckabee, but I do like what he says about focusing on curing diseases.
No trade
Christie seemed minor now. He didn't seem to be at the core of the debate.
Sell 200 @ $0.045
Kasich has stopped engaging with the questions asked of him and stopped playing the game. At this point he is just trying to talk sense into people..
Sell 200 @ $0.023
Fiorina seems like rubio at the first debate. Generally well spoken and good at the politics thing (awkward closing statement aside). She ran a major company into the ground so she won't get it, but she may go up before she doesn't.
Buy 200 @ $0.03
Trump seemed less like a juggernaut than before, but I still can't call anything.
No trade, I don’t feel I understand this one well enough.