Scottish Independence would be the End of the World

There hasn’t been much reporting on the Scottish independence vote in the US press. What coverage there is has been rather blasé’. They point out that yes, they probably should stay in the union, but otherwise don’t hit the issue too hard. A rare exception has been Krugman , who, as usual , is the most correct person in all of mainstream media.

There is no complacency on this blog. Scottish Independence would be the End of the World. Well, that’s a slight overstatement, but Scottish independence has the potential to be really bad. So as noted, Scotland will fall into economic ruin.

Testable prediction: within 15 years, an episode of unemployment / joblessness above 20%.

It could also trigger a variety of follow on negative consequences.

Testable prediction: Greater than 10% chance of rioting / civil unrest in Scotland conditional on economic ruin.

Testable prediction: Greater than 5% chance of rioting / civil unrest due to independence movements in a region of continental Europe within 5 years of Scottish Independence.

Testable prediction: Greater than 5% chance of rioting / civil unrest due to independence movements in a region the UK within 5 years of Scottish Independence.

Scotland leaving takes a lot of the most pro EU voters out of the UK. Testable prediction: Greater than 25% chance of UK leaving the EU within 2.5 years of Scottish Independence. Further prediction: greater than 33% chance of ‘seriously messed up sh#$’ happening within 5 years of UK leaving the EU.

The UK would be diminished globally if Scotland leaves. Testable prediction: Greater than 85% chance of an international organization with the UK as a member failing to stop something awful with 5 years of Scotland leaving.